Melbourne Cup 2016: Seven top tips to pick a winner

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Cup chances: Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. Photo: Vince CaligiuriNot sure who to back in the Melbourne Cup? Neither are we. But there might be an easy way to at least whittle down the 24 hopefuls to just a few who fit the profile of previous winners in the race’s more than 150-year history.
Nanjing Night Net

Here are seven simple ways to find the winner of Tuesday’s race after crunching the facts and figures:  1. The numbers have it: Nos.4 and 12 have both had 11 wins. No.1 has 10, No.8 has eight and No.11 has had seven wins.2. Barriers to victory: Horses in barriers nine to 12 have had five wins in the past 13 years. Barrier 18 has never had a win.3. The right age: Four and five-year-old horses have won the cup 91 times. The past 10 cups have been won by horses aged either four, five or six.4. Sex matters: Overall, stallions or geldings have won it 66 times, including the past eight runnings.5. Tip the scales: The average winning jockey weight during the past nine years is 54.11 kilograms.6. Colour your world: Check the jockey silks – black as a main colour has won 17 times and royal and navy blue 16 times.7. Shorten the odds: Odds of 10-1 have won 14 times and odds of 8-1 have won 13 times.

Compute all those stats and you’re looking for a 10-1, four or five-year-old stallion wearing a number between 4 and 12, starting from barriers 9-12, carrying a 54-kilogram jockey wearing black silks.

Think there’s a horse that fits that exact criteria? Of course there isn’t. So who do the numbers say are going to win Australia’s biggest race?

There are a few that might go close to fitting the bill.

Chris Waller’s Grand Marshal is one that looks really suited once the numbers are crunched. He might be getting a bit long in the tooth as a seven-year-old gelding, but there is a lot going for him (No.11 saddlecloth, barrier nine and 54.5 kilograms, but his price is $41).

Exospheric might have a bit of weight in 56 kilograms, but everything else lines up nicely (five-year-old stallion, barrier 13 and $21).

But maybe the obvious is just too hard to go by. Cup favourite Hartnell looks to have a perfect profile (six-year-old gelding, barrier 12, blue silks, $5 favourite but 56 kilograms). And second favourite Oceanographer (five-year-old gelding, barrier 11, blue silks, $7 and 52 kilograms).

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s Godolphin racing empire has never won a Melbourne Cup, but they might just have found the right horses to do it.

You can thank us a few minutes after 3pm when he wins.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.